If you’ve never stared a “Black Swan” in the face, you are now! A Black Swan is an event that happens unexpectedly, has significant, even devastating consequences, and is then rationalize. The current Coronavirus is a Black Swan.
Our world has changed, dramatically for some, in a matter of a few short weeks. Most of us are scrambling to safeguard both our families and the businesses we steward. Most of us will be unscathed health-wise, but most will experience an impact on our companies. Some of us are somewhat prepared to weather this Black Swan, many of us are not.
You may question how can we possibly prepare for a Black Swan like a Coronavirus, that originated in a country thousands of miles away, in a "wet market" (whatever that is), and from a culture that eats exotic animals? The answer to that question is: we have to think and plan differently!
You might question how we can think differently about a Black Swan such as this?
One way to think differently and start protecting yourself against the next Black Swan, and the aftershocks that follow, is to work through this exercise:
have your team identify a minimum of ten events, or series of events, that would severely impact your business to the point of irrelevancy or failure;
a minimum of ten events is required; the more, the better;
any and all events should be included no matter how outlandish they may seem;
your next Black Swan or aftershocks will be on your list in the eight, nine, or ten spots (start from the bottom and work your way).
challenge each event and identify the action that must be taken immediately, or in the very near future.
You may question that no one would ever think of the Coronavirus in this exercise. Well, that may be true. But you might include the disruption of your Chinese supply chain; the shortage of a significant device component, like test kits; or the curtailment or cancellation of a substantial contract for a local or national sporting event, like the NCAA National Championship Basketball Tournaments. If done with diligence and creativity you will identify the more specific Black Swan you may be experiencing now or in the near future.
There will be continuous shock waves emanating from this Black Swan over the next several months. Now is the time to identify those potential impacts, assess the implications, and plan for them as best you can. The exercise above will help you.
This type of exercise should preferably be done as part of your regular strategic thinking process, for once you’ve identified your Black Swan you can prepare for it. And, by definition, it is no longer a Black Swan because if and when it happens it is not unexpected, and, because you've planned for it the impact will be minimized or avoided altogether.
Now is the time to plan for your next Black Swan, and there will be a next one.
About the Author
Dr. Michael Petty is the co-founder and consulting-futurist at Flagship Futures Group, LLC in Washington, DC. He brings over forty-five years of strategic and financial experience to the service of his clients. His most significant value to his clients lies in his expertise in the areas of strategic thinking, planning and execution; shareholder value creation; and leadership development.
Learn more about Dr. Petty here, or get in contact with him here.